Manchester, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

735
FXUS66 KEKA 031219
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
419 AM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Relatively clear, warm and dry conditions expected through
midweek. A weak shortwave will move through the region Wednesday and
Thursday, producing light drizzle along the north coast. Chances
for rainfall or drizzle increase through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover cleared out Monday with the departure
of a weak upper low. With a strong ridge of high pressure firmly
in place, overnight lows dropped to chilly but seasonably normal
levels in the lower elevations. The ridgetop temperatures have
been much milder above the inversion. Expect very similar
conditions through Wednesday. Coastal stratus and fog will begin
increasing in coverage tonight. A weak shortwave will clip the
region Wednesday night, mainly increasing cloud cover. Some light
showers and coastal drizzle will also be likely, but precipitation
accumulations will be highly limited with chances for over 0.1
inch of rainfall less than 20%.

The ridge will further amplify late this week, and daytime highs
will be warm, pleasant and much above climatological averages.
There are indications the coastal stratus and possible fog will
regain more of a presence, and this would suppress highs for
portions of the coast. A stronger system will impact the Pacific
Northwest through the weekend, with some of it likely clipping N
CA. Probabilities for a wetting rainfall over a tenth for an inch
go up to 40 to 65%, but significantly drop for over 0.3 inches.
Orientation of steering high pressure will determine how much
moisture makes it to the coast; elevated PWAT values are available
just offshore within a weak AR-type feature. Cluster and ensemble
members show strong evidence the trough will then drop into the
Great Basin as an inside slider going into next week, and this
pattern is favorable for amplified offshore winds. /JJW




&&

.AVIATION...At coastal terminals, little to no wind is expected into
early this morning. This lack of wind will increase the possibility
for the development of lower clouds and dropping visibilities. There
has still been some periods of light offshore flow early this
morning at both KACV and KCEC, which is helping to stave off low
cloud development. By mid morning, any potential for decreased
ceilings and visibility at the coast will diminish with VFR
conditions expected through the daylight hours. With high pressure
building back in throughout the day, stratus development is more
likely at the coast overnight tonight. Interior valleys are expected
to have foggy/misty conditions into mid morning, particularly the
Trinity River valley. There is a potential for MVFR conditions
around KUKI, but models indicate that VFR conditions are expected
for most of the forecast period. /JLW


&&

.MARINE...A long period W swell continues to diminish into the
middle of the week. Winds continue at 5 - 10 kts out of the north,
at least through Tuesday. Short range models are indicating a weak
expansion fan developing downwind of Port Orford and Cape Mendocino
today and into Wednesday, briefly generating 15 to 20 knot gusts in
the outer waters. However, significant wave heights will likely
remain below advisory levels through late this week despite
additional long period NW swells filling into the waters Thursday
and Friday. Models are still inconsistent regarding elevated
northerly winds during this period late week.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png